Motherwell 3-0 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
17.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 30% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.98
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1 EV+ ✓
20%
5.83
X/2
12%
5.73
X/X
11%
4.31
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
11%
3.87
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · X/1 at 5.83 — our 20% vs market 13.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
36%
+10.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-6.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.28/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.29
+11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
265 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 72%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
21.2 Crosses 25.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.60 xG 1.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
179 Passes 286
61% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
08.01.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
20.12.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
18.08.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKLK
03.02.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
04.11.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
3-0
AWAY Kilmarnock
2.57 xG 0.53
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
508 Passes 189
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
38 Box Touches 15
33 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell cruised past Kilmarnock 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motherwell as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Motherwell had 69% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 31%, shots finished 24-13, expected goals 2.57 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Motherwell and 0.83 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Motherwell 3-0 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 46%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motherwell), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motherwell) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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