Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 14 May 2026

📅14/05/2026 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.71/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.42
+46% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Spartak Varna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.04.2026 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
07.11.2025 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-4 HT 0-2 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
16.03.2025 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 4-2 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
30.09.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
24.09.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-2 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BULB
31.05.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1-0
AWAY Spartak Varna
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia nicked a narrow win over Spartak Varna 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Septemvri Sofia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 40% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 60%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.33 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 14/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Septemvri Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 43%, draw 28%, Spartak Varna 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Septemvri Sofia), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Septemvri Sofia) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
14 May 2026
17:45 Botev Vratsa vs Montana Analysis →
20:15 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs PFC Beroe Analysis →