Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Jul 2024

Houston Dynamo
1-1 HT 0-0
Minnesota United
📅14/07/2024 · 🕒04:27 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.31
2-3 Goals
35%
1.99
4-5 Goals
29%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.95
X/1
18%
4.12
X/2
9%
10.45
X/X
8%
6.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
19.7
2/2
9%
7.07
2/X
7%
15.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 16% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.1pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
1.81/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.81
-11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
17.6 Crosses 13.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Houston Dynamo
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Minnesota United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
419 Passes 274
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-2 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
13.07.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-3 HT 0-2 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
24.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 4-0 HT 1-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABDK
18.05.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-0 HT 1-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
27.08.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
24.07.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-2 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD

Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
1-1
AWAY Minnesota United
0.86 xG 0.67
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
541 Passes 220
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
38 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Houston Dynamo at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 68% of the ball to Minnesota United's 32%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 0.86 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.50 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?

Houston Dynamo 1-1 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Houston Dynamo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 53%, draw 23%, Minnesota United 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Houston Dynamo), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Houston Dynamo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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