Yokohama F. Marinos 4-1 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.64
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
11%
6.14
X/2
11%
5.69
X/X
11%
5.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
25.5
2/2
19%
3.28
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 13% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.2pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -5%
1.85/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.06
+40% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.7 Crosses 17.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.65 xG 1.05
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
450 Passes 220
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-2 HT 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
24.09.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 1-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
18.03.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
30.07.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
10.04.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-3 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
28.08.2021 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 0-2 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
4-1
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.81 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
340 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yokohama F. Marinos swept aside Kashima Antlers 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Yokohama F. Marinos found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Yokohama F. Marinos had 52% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 48%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.81 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.17 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers?

Yokohama F. Marinos 4-1 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Yokohama F. Marinos 38%, draw 26%, Kashima Antlers 36%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Yokohama F. Marinos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
14 Jul 2024
12:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →
12:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
12:30 Kyoto Sanga vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
12:30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
13:00 Shonan Bellmare vs Jubilo Iwata Analysis →
13:00 Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →