Ilves Tampere 3-2 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 14 Jul 2025

📅14/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.15
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
15%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.85
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.6
X/1
12%
4.22
X/2
10%
12.1
X/X
10%
6.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.65
2/2
12%
9.06
2/X
5%
17.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.65 — our 13% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
62%
-13.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
17%
+11.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.7pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.85/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.66
+4% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 75%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
16.8 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
4W-1D-1L
AWAY VPS
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.92 xG 1.42
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
458 Passes 363
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.05.2025 VPS VPS 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
15.02.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FLK
04.10.2024 VPS VPS 0-2 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİN
07.06.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
03.02.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-1 HT 2-1 VPS VPS FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-2
AWAY VPS
2.21 xG 0.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 Passes 354
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere edged past VPS 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 49% of the ball to VPS's 51%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 2.21 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ilves Tampere's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ilves Tampere and 0.83 for VPS.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs VPS?

Ilves Tampere 3-2 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 14/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 49%, draw 23%, VPS 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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