Stevenage 3-0 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.12
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.85
X/2
12%
5.12
X/X
9%
4.51
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
17%
3.42
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +20%
1.24/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.23
-14% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
258 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 73%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.2 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 0.61
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
188 Passes 304
60% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2024 Stevenage Stevenage 2-1 HT 1-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
23.12.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 2-1 HT 1-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
3-0
AWAY Barnsley
1.39 xG 0.52
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 10
159 Passes 272
62% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage swept aside Barnsley 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Stevenage made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Stevenage had 41% of the ball to Barnsley's 59%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.39 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stevenage and 1.50 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Barnsley?

Stevenage 3-0 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 38%, draw 26%, Barnsley 36%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stevenage) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Under 2.5
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