Bournemouth 0-1 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.35
2-3 Goals
36%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.12
1/2
8%
22.3
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
9%
6.87
X/2
13%
5.39
X/X
11%
5.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
2/2
16%
2.93
2/X
9%
12.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
33%
+3.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-4.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.2pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.54/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.35
+0% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 83%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
18.6 Crosses 17.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Chelsea
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 1.71
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
238 Passes 532
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 36
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
17.09.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
06.05.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
27.12.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 2-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
29.02.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-2 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
14.12.2019 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
0-1
AWAY Chelsea
1.77 xG 0.77
33% Ball Possession 67%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
193 Passes 494
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 8
6 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea nicked a narrow win over Bournemouth 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Chelsea found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bournemouth had 33% of the ball to Chelsea's 67%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.77 to 0.77 — on chances, Bournemouth could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Chelsea?

Bournemouth 0-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 37%, draw 26%, Chelsea 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
14 Sep 2024
14:30 Southampton vs Manchester United Analysis →
17:00 Fulham vs West Ham United Analysis →
17:00 Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Analysis →
17:00 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Ipswich Town Analysis →
17:00 Crystal Palace vs Leicester City Analysis →
17:00 Manchester City vs Brentford Analysis →