Ilves Tampere 3-2 Haka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.11
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
29%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.04
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.85
X/1
21%
4.12
X/2
6%
10.05
X/X
12%
6.43
2/1
8%
19.85
2/2
8%
6.83
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.2
Value flag · 2/X at 15.2 — our 10% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-4.3pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.0pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-1.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Haka EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.84/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.23
-1% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
17.2 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Haka
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.85 xG 1.90
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
377 Passes 267
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
15.07.2024 Haka Haka 4-3 HT 1-2 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
17.05.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 5-0 HT 2-0 Haka Haka FİN
16.02.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-2 HT 0-1 Haka Haka FLK
15.09.2023 Haka Haka 2-2 HT 2-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
04.08.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 0-1 Haka Haka FİN
07.06.2023 Haka Haka 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-2
AWAY Haka
3.63 xG 1.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
299 Passes 288
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs Haka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere nicked a narrow win over Haka 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 50% of the ball to Haka's 50%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 3.63 to 1.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ilves Tampere's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Haka led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Ilves Tampere and 1.83 for Haka.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs Haka?

Ilves Tampere 3-2 Haka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs Haka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 53%, draw 28%, Haka 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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