KuPS Kuopio 3-1 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.43
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.64 — our 24% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.7
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.2
X/1
15%
3.64
X/2
7%
14.25
X/X
11%
6.89
2/1
11%
21.05
2/2
8%
10.7
2/X
8%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-12.2pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.7pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
1.70/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.65
-11% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
442 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 82%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
24.0 Crosses 19.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
4W-0D-2L
AWAY VPS
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
404 Passes 363
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
22.05.2024 VPS VPS 1-3 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
10.05.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 2-1 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
08.02.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 5-0 HT 3-0 VPS VPS FLK
17.09.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-2 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
08.07.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-1 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
11.06.2023 VPS VPS 0-2 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
3-1
AWAY VPS
1.49 xG 0.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
373 Passes 452
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio beat VPS 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 46% of the ball to VPS's 54%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 1.49 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.83 for VPS.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs VPS?

KuPS Kuopio 3-1 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 53%, draw 26%, VPS 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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