Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 14 Sep 2025

Kilmarnock
1-2 HT 0-0
Celtic
📅14/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
7.78
Draw
18%
4.95
Away
70%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.8
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
14%
7.61
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.8 — our 27% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
15.65
1/2
13%
21.2
1/X
6%
24.1
X/1
4%
18.35
X/2
21%
3.75
X/X
8%
7.83
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
36%
1.48
2/X
4%
20.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
11%
+1.2pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.0pp
70%
Away Win
72%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kilmarnock v Celtic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Celtic EU Bookmakers 75%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.37/2.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.42/0.76
+14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +22%
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
201 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 506 · 84%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.2
19.2 Crosses 24.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.3

Kilmarnock vs Celtic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Celtic
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
1.02 xG 2.84
28% Ball Possession 72%
11 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
138 Passes 588
60% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 38
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.04.2025 Celtic Celtic 5-1 HT 4-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
18.01.2025 Celtic Celtic 2-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKK
10.11.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-2 HT 0-1 Celtic Celtic İKP
04.08.2024 Celtic Celtic 4-0 HT 2-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
15.05.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-5 HT 0-3 Celtic Celtic İKP
17.02.2024 Celtic Celtic 1-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP

Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
1-2
AWAY Celtic
1.66 xG 2.83
24% Ball Possession 76%
12 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
144 Passes 658
69% Pass Accuracy 90%
20 Box Touches 46
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celtic nicked a narrow win over Kilmarnock 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Celtic as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 24% of the ball to Celtic's 76%, shots finished 12-21, expected goals 1.66 to 2.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celtic led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kilmarnock and 3.17 for Celtic.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Celtic?

Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celtic win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 12%, draw 18%, Celtic 70%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celtic) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celtic) ✗ BTTS No
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