Valur 1-2 Stjarnan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.35
No
35%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.2pp
65%
BTTS Yes
70%
-5.2pp
35%
BTTS No
30%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valur EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
2.20/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.87
+37% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +34%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
20.6 Crosses 15.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valur
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stjarnan
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.78 xG 1.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
314 Passes 343
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.07.2025 Valur Valur 3-1 HT 1-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZK
14.06.2025 Stjarnan Stjarnan 3-2 HT 1-1 Valur Valur İZL
23.09.2024 Valur Valur 2-2 HT 0-2 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
30.05.2024 Valur Valur 5-1 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
19.04.2024 Stjarnan Stjarnan 1-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
17.09.2023 Valur Valur 2-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valur
1-2
AWAY Stjarnan
1.61 xG 1.99
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 15
334 Passes 257
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 43
17 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valur vs Stjarnan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stjarnan nicked a narrow win over Valur 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Valur at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (65%) came in.

On the day, Valur had 54% of the ball to Stjarnan's 46%, shots finished 16-25, expected goals 1.61 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Valur and 1.33 for Stjarnan.

What was the final score of Valur vs Stjarnan?

Valur 1-2 Stjarnan in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valur vs Stjarnan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Valur 52%, draw 23%, Stjarnan 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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