Lille vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lille v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals
Lille vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Toulouse
FR1
0-2
HT 0-0
Lille
FR1
2-1
HT 1-0
Toulouse
FR1
Lille 2-1 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics
Lille edged past Toulouse 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lille had 70% of the ball to Toulouse's 30%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.21 to 0.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lille's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lille and 1.17 for Toulouse.
What was the final score of Lille vs Toulouse?
Lille 2-1 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lille vs Toulouse?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lille 51%, draw 25%, Toulouse 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.