Rennes 3-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Sep 2025

Rennes
3-1 HT 0-1
Lyon
📅14/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Rennes vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.45
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.15
X/1
16%
5.55
X/2
11%
6.09
X/X
9%
4.64
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
14%
3.99
2/X
7%
12.35
Value flag · 1/X at 12.15 — our 13% vs market 5.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.67/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.59
+23% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
18.0 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Rennes vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lyon
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.23 xG 1.42
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
323 Passes 460
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 29
9 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.04.2025 Lyon Lyon 4-1 HT 3-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
18.08.2024 Rennes Rennes 3-0 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
26.01.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-3 HT 0-3 Rennes Rennes FR1
12.11.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
09.04.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
16.10.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Rennes 3-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
3-1
AWAY Lyon
2.19 xG 1.71
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
386 Passes 420
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
35 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes beat Lyon 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Rennes found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Rennes had 48% of the ball to Lyon's 52%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.19 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Rennes and 2.00 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Lyon?

Rennes 3-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Rennes 38%, draw 29%, Lyon 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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