Sportivo Luqueno 1-4 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
50%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
24%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
23%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
50%
Away Win
50%
+0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Luqueno EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.04/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.65
-4% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +53%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
163 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Luqueno
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Libertad
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.07.2025 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
12.05.2025 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
01.03.2025 Libertad Libertad 3-0 HT 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
14.11.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PARK
10.11.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
29.08.2024 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Luqueno
1-4
AWAY Libertad
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sportivo Luqueno vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad swept aside Sportivo Luqueno 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sportivo Luqueno had 48% of the ball to Libertad's 52%, shots finished 10-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Sportivo Luqueno vs Libertad?

Sportivo Luqueno 1-4 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Luqueno vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Luqueno 21%, draw 29%, Libertad 50%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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