İzlanda 2-4 Türkiye — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 14 Oct 2024

İzlanda
2-4 HT 1-0
Türkiye
📅14/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
UEFA Uluslar League – 2024/2025

İzlanda vs Türkiye Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
41%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.9
Over
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
24%
3.38
2-3
46%
1.79
4-5
22%
3.51
6+
8%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.38 — our 24% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.17
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
11%
8.15
X/2
13%
4.21
X/X ✗
21%
4.87
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.45
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · X/X at 4.87 — our 21% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.9pp
33%
Draw
25%
+8.2pp
41%
Away Win
50%
-9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İzlanda v Türkiye — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İzlanda EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Türkiye EU Bookmakers 55%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -64% / -64%
1.18/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.21
+82% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -61%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
15.5 Crosses 14.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0

İzlanda vs Türkiye Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İzlanda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Türkiye
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.46 xG 0.88
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
212 Passes 437
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.09.2024 Türkiye Türkiye 3-1 HT 1-1 İzlanda İzlanda AVUL
14.11.2019 Türkiye Türkiye 0-0 HT 0-0 İzlanda İzlanda AVŞE
11.06.2019 İzlanda İzlanda 2-1 HT 2-1 Türkiye Türkiye AVŞE
06.10.2017 Türkiye Türkiye 0-3 HT 0-2 İzlanda İzlanda DKE
09.10.2016 İzlanda İzlanda 2-0 HT 2-0 Türkiye Türkiye DKE
13.10.2015 Türkiye Türkiye 1-0 HT 0-0 İzlanda İzlanda AVŞE

İzlanda 2-4 Türkiye — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İzlanda
2-4
AWAY Türkiye
1.11 xG 3.03
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 24
7 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 6
213 Passes 464
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 41
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH İzlanda vs Türkiye
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Türkiye beat İzlanda 4-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Türkiye as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İzlanda had 36% of the ball to Türkiye's 64%, shots finished 12-24, expected goals 1.11 to 3.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, İzlanda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for İzlanda and 0.83 for Türkiye.

What was the final score of İzlanda vs Türkiye?

İzlanda 2-4 Türkiye in the UEFA Uluslar League on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İzlanda vs Türkiye?

Before kick-off our model rated an Türkiye win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split İzlanda 26%, draw 33%, Türkiye 41%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Türkiye) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Türkiye) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUL More UEFA Uluslar League
14 Oct 2024
00:00 Azerbaycan vs Slovakya Analysis →
00:00 Almanya vs Hollanda Analysis →
19:00 Gürcistan vs Arnavutluk Analysis →
21:45 Galler vs Karadağ Analysis →
21:45 Belçika vs Fransa Analysis →
21:45 Bosna-Hersek vs Macaristan Analysis →