Azerbaycan 1-3 Slovakya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 14 Oct 2024

📅14/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
50%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
57%
1.82
Over
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No Pick
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.21
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
20%
3.66
6+
8%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.21 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.24
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
5%
16.7
X/1
11%
10.1
X/2
13%
3.76
X/X
16%
5.08
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.1
2/X
5%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+5.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
50%
Away Win
57%
-6.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.5pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Slovakya EU Bookmakers 61%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
0.40/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/0.51
-100% / +120% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / -39%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 81%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
12.3 Crosses 23.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Azerbaycan
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Slovakya
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
0.52 xG 1.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
312 Passes 517
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2024 Slovakya Slovakya 2-0 HT 2-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVUL
22.09.2022 Slovakya Slovakya 1-2 HT 0-1 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVUL
10.06.2022 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 0-1 HT 0-0 Slovakya Slovakya AVUL
19.11.2019 Slovakya Slovakya 2-0 HT 1-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVŞE
11.06.2019 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 1-5 HT 1-3 Slovakya Slovakya AVŞE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Azerbaycan
1-3
AWAY Slovakya
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
312 Passes 512
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
POST-MATCH Azerbaycan vs Slovakya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slovakya got the better of Azerbaycan 3-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Slovakya as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Azerbaycan had 40% of the ball to Slovakya's 60%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Slovakya led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Azerbaycan and 2.20 for Slovakya.

What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs Slovakya?

Azerbaycan 1-3 Slovakya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs Slovakya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Slovakya win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 24%, draw 26%, Slovakya 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slovakya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Slovakya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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