Galler vs Karadağ Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Galler v Karadağ — Team-Based Signals
Galler vs Karadağ Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-0
Karadağ
AVR
1-0
HT 1-0
Galler
AVR
2-1
HT 2-0
Galler
HAZ
Galler 1-0 Karadağ — Actual Match Statistics
Galler squeezed past Karadağ 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Galler as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.
On the day, Galler had 66% of the ball to Karadağ's 34%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.70 to 0.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Galler's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Galler and 1.25 for Karadağ.
What was the final score of Galler vs Karadağ?
Galler 1-0 Karadağ in the UEFA Uluslar League on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Galler vs Karadağ?
Before kick-off our model rated a Galler win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Galler 51%, draw 26%, Karadağ 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galler), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.