Gürcistan 0-1 Arnavutluk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 14 Oct 2024

Gürcistan
0-1 HT 0-0
Arnavutluk
📅14/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
UEFA Uluslar League – 2024/2025

Gürcistan vs Arnavutluk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
60%
1.67
Over
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No Pick
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 ✓
33%
2.7
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.34
6+
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.7 — our 33% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.32
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
20%
3.85
X/2
8%
9.22
X/X
13%
4.33
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
12%
7.82
2/X
5%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.5pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gürcistan v Arnavutluk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gürcistan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Arnavutluk EU Bookmakers 23%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.26/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.11
-86% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
26.5 Crosses 13.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Gürcistan vs Arnavutluk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gürcistan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Arnavutluk
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 0.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
509 Passes 497
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.09.2024 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 0-1 HT 0-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan AVUL
06.02.2013 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 1-2 HT 1-1 Gürcistan Gürcistan HAZ
29.02.2012 Gürcistan Gürcistan 2-1 HT 0-1 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk HAZ
10.06.2009 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 1-1 HT 0-1 Gürcistan Gürcistan HAZ
04.06.2005 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 3-2 HT 2-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan DKE
08.09.2004 Gürcistan Gürcistan 2-0 HT 1-0 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk DKE

Gürcistan 0-1 Arnavutluk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gürcistan
0-1
AWAY Arnavutluk
1.33 xG 0.55
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
571 Passes 303
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gürcistan vs Arnavutluk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arnavutluk edged past Gürcistan 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gürcistan at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gürcistan had 64% of the ball to Arnavutluk's 36%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.33 to 0.55 — on chances, Gürcistan could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gürcistan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gürcistan and 1.00 for Arnavutluk.

What was the final score of Gürcistan vs Arnavutluk?

Gürcistan 0-1 Arnavutluk in the UEFA Uluslar League on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gürcistan vs Arnavutluk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gürcistan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Gürcistan 53%, draw 23%, Arnavutluk 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gürcistan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gürcistan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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