Senegal 4-0 Moritanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 14 Oct 2025

📅14/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
74%
1.18
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
7%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.81
No
64%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.78
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 29% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
2%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
3%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
74%
Home Win
79%
-5.3pp
18%
Draw
15%
+3.2pp
7%
Away Win
5%
+2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
32%
+4.7pp
64%
BTTS No
68%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Senegal EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Moritanya EU Bookmakers 8%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.24/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.41
-17% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / +2%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
431 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 74%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.9 Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Senegal
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Moritanya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.13 xG 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
117 Passes 237
54% Pass Accuracy 71%
8 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.06.2024 Moritanya Moritanya 0-1 HT 0-1 Senegal Senegal DKE
27.01.2023 Senegal Senegal 1-0 HT 1-0 Moritanya Moritanya AUŞ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Senegal
4-0
AWAY Moritanya
2.05 xG 0.44
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
436 Passes 269
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Senegal vs Moritanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Senegal ran out comfortable winners over Moritanya 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Senegal as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (64%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Senegal had 60% of the ball to Moritanya's 40%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.05 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Senegal had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Senegal and 0.00 for Moritanya.

What was the final score of Senegal vs Moritanya?

Senegal 4-0 Moritanya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 14/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Senegal vs Moritanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Senegal win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Senegal 74%, draw 18%, Moritanya 7%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Senegal), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Senegal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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