Burundi 0-0 Lesotho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
35%
3.04
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
5.28
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.35 — our 39% vs market 36.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.1pp
35%
Draw
29%
+6.0pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burundi EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Lesotho EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
2.00/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/0.02
+39% / -61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -67% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
Crosses 20.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burundi
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lesotho
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.86 xG 2.12
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 12
218 Passes 310
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.09.2024 Lesotho Lesotho 2-3 HT 1-2 Burundi Burundi AFUK
15.11.2011 Burundi Burundi 2-2 HT 1-1 Lesotho Lesotho DKE
11.11.2011 Lesotho Lesotho 1-0 HT 0-0 Burundi Burundi DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burundi
0-0
AWAY Lesotho
0.67 xG 0.45
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
355 Passes 331
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burundi vs Lesotho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burundi and Lesotho played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 35% / 27% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Burundi had 51% of the ball to Lesotho's 49%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.67 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Burundi and 1.67 for Lesotho.

What was the final score of Burundi vs Lesotho?

Burundi 0-0 Lesotho in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burundi vs Lesotho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burundi win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Burundi 37%, draw 35%, Lesotho 27%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Burundi) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burundi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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