Madagaskar 2-3 Tunus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.34
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
54%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.44
Over 2.5
33%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.75
No
69%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2.02
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
16%
6.69
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
28%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
16%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
54%
Away Win
57%
-3.3pp
67%
Under 2.5
66%
+1.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
34%
-1.4pp
31%
BTTS Yes
32%
-1.4pp
69%
BTTS No
68%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Madagaskar EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Tunus EU Bookmakers 61%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.15/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.55
+124% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -10%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
233 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 82%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
11.7 Crosses 16.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Madagaskar
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Tunus
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.34 xG 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
286 Passes 420
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
05.09.2024 Tunus Tunus 1-0 HT 0-0 Madagaskar Madagaskar AFUK
11.07.2019 Madagaskar Madagaskar 0-3 HT 0-0 Tunus Tunus AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Madagaskar
2-3
AWAY Tunus
0.44 xG 1.67
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
196 Passes 450
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Madagaskar vs Tunus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tunus edged past Madagaskar 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tunus as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (69%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Madagaskar had 35% of the ball to Tunus's 65%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.44 to 1.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tunus's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tunus led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Madagaskar and 2.00 for Tunus.

What was the final score of Madagaskar vs Tunus?

Madagaskar 2-3 Tunus in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Madagaskar vs Tunus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tunus win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Madagaskar 20%, draw 26%, Tunus 54%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tunus) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tunus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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