Lesotho 1-0 Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.45
Over 2.5
44%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
19%
6.38
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
18%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+3.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
65%
-9.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
35%
+9.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.4pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lesotho EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti EU Bookmakers 49%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-31% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
11.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.6 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lesotho
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
05.09.2024 Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti 3-1 HT 2-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lesotho
1-0
AWAY Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti
1.56 xG 1.49
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
240 Passes 374
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lesotho vs Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lesotho edged past Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lesotho had 42% of the ball to Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti's 58%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.56 to 1.49.

What was the final score of Lesotho vs Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti?

Lesotho 1-0 Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lesotho vs Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti?

Before kick-off our model rated an Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lesotho 28%, draw 30%, Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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