Güney Sudan 3-2 Kongo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.45
Over 2.5
41%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
16%
6.17
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
65%
-6.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
35%
+6.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.7pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Güney Sudan EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Kongo EU Bookmakers 49%
-51% / -51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-100% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
Crosses 22.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Güney Sudan
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Kongo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.50 xG 1.04
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
147 Passes 394
63% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.09.2024 Kongo Kongo 1-0 HT 1-0 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan AFUK
27.03.2023 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan 0-1 HT 0-0 Kongo Kongo AFUK
23.03.2023 Kongo Kongo 1-2 HT 0-0 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Güney Sudan
3-2
AWAY Kongo
2.06 xG 1.27
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
210 Passes 326
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
5 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Güney Sudan vs Kongo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Güney Sudan squeezed past Kongo 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Güney Sudan made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Güney Sudan had 42% of the ball to Kongo's 58%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.06 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kongo led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Güney Sudan and 1.00 for Kongo.

What was the final score of Güney Sudan vs Kongo?

Güney Sudan 3-2 Kongo in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Güney Sudan vs Kongo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kongo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Güney Sudan 32%, draw 29%, Kongo 39%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kongo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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