Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aberdeen v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Aberdeen 2-1 Kilmarnock — Actual Match Statistics
Aberdeen edged past Kilmarnock 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Aberdeen had 68% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 32%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.53 to 1.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aberdeen's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aberdeen and 1.17 for Kilmarnock.
What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
Aberdeen 2-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 52%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen) — while BTTS No went the other way.