Aberdeen 2-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.22
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1
17%
4.24
X/2
9%
9.77
X/X
10%
4.96
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
8%
8.03
2/X
8%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.3pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.63/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.50
+14% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +0%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 66%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.9 Crosses 20.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberdeen
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 Passes 222
69% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
22.02.2025 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
26.12.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
25.08.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
09.03.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKK
24.02.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberdeen
2-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
3.53 xG 1.02
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
463 Passes 176
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen edged past Kilmarnock 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aberdeen had 68% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 32%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.53 to 1.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aberdeen's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aberdeen and 1.17 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Aberdeen 2-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 52%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ BTTS No
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