Lugano 4-2 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.54
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
11.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.01
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
19%
5.09
X/2
7%
6.88
X/X
12%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.45
2/2
18%
4.81
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.7pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.36/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.43
-21% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
17.9 Crosses 23.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Servette
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.92 xG 1.10
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
429 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2025 Servette Servette 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
15.05.2025 Servette Servette 4-1 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.03.2025 Lugano Lugano 0-2 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
01.12.2024 Servette Servette 3-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
03.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
02.06.2024 Servette Servette 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
4-2
AWAY Servette
1.30 xG 1.58
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 8
376 Passes 363
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano saw off Servette 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lugano had 49% of the ball to Servette's 51%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.30 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lugano and 2.00 for Servette.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Servette?

Lugano 4-2 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lugano 44%, draw 25%, Servette 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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