Lugano 0-2 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.3
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
8%
5.4
X/2
10%
6.52
X/X
10%
4.73
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2 EV+ ✓
23%
4.43
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/2 at 4.43 — our 23% vs market 18.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.8pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.0pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.34/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.46
-6% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
16.7 Crosses 20.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Servette
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
384 Passes 298
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 Servette Servette 3-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
03.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
02.06.2024 Servette Servette 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
25.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-2 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
18.02.2024 Servette Servette 2-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
17.12.2023 Servette Servette 2-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
0-2
AWAY Servette
1.62 xG 0.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
417 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Servette saw off Lugano 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Servette found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lugano had 57% of the ball to Servette's 43%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.62 to 0.69 — on chances, Lugano could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lugano and 1.67 for Servette.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Servette?

Lugano 0-2 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lugano 39%, draw 23%, Servette 39%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/23/39) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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