Servette 4-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.95
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
13%
7.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.69
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
16%
5.14
X/2
13%
7.66
X/X
9%
5.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.45
2/2
12%
4.99
2/X
9%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.9pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Servette EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -5%
1.77/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.42
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
22.8 Crosses 15.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Servette
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lugano
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 1.03
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
294 Passes 397
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2025 Lugano Lugano 0-2 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
01.12.2024 Servette Servette 3-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
03.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
02.06.2024 Servette Servette 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
25.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-2 HT 0-1 Servette Servette İSV
18.02.2024 Servette Servette 2-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Servette
4-1
AWAY Lugano
1.88 xG 0.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
313 Passes 315
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Servette vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Servette ran out comfortable winners over Lugano 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Servette as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Servette had 50% of the ball to Lugano's 50%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.88 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Servette had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Servette and 0.67 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Servette vs Lugano?

Servette 4-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Servette vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Servette win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Servette 42%, draw 27%, Lugano 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Servette), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Servette) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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