Austria Wien 3-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.08
1/2
11%
29.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
17%
5.85
X/2
9%
5.51
X/X
13%
4.41
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
15%
3.73
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.64/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.47
+18% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
23.7 Crosses 18.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austria Wien
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.37 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
269 Passes 267
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
27.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
23.04.2025 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 1-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
01.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVK
25.09.2024 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austria Wien
3-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.00 xG 1.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
4 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
240 Passes 302
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
8 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien beat Sturm Graz 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Austria Wien made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Austria Wien had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 4-14, expected goals 2.00 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austria Wien had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Austria Wien and 0.83 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Austria Wien 3-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austria Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Austria Wien 38%, draw 27%, Sturm Graz 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austria Wien), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Austria Wien) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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