Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.53
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.12
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
15%
5.22
X/2
16%
6.6
X/X
15%
4.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.95
2/2
11%
4.51
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.95 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.54/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.49
+1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
21.6 Crosses 18.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Austria Wien
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 1.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
230 Passes 298
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
23.04.2025 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 1-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
01.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVK
25.09.2024 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
02.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
0-1
AWAY Austria Wien
0.86 xG 0.61
69% Ball Possession 31%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
419 Passes 151
77% Pass Accuracy 61%
29 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Austria Wien made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 69% of the ball to Austria Wien's 31%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.86 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austria Wien led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.50 for Austria Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien?

Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 39%, draw 28%, Austria Wien 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sturm Graz), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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