Fulham 2-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 32% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.97
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
12%
4.95
X/2
11%
6.97
X/X
13%
4.5
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.05
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.63/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.66
+20% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
23.9 Crosses 17.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
481 Passes 259
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
02.04.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 3-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
06.12.2023 Fulham Fulham 5-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
11.02.2023 Fulham Fulham 2-0 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
16.09.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
26.04.2022 Fulham Fulham 0-1 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
2-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.18 xG 0.42
56% Ball Possession 44%
24 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
439 Passes 343
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 16
33 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham edged past Nottingham Forest 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fulham as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fulham had 56% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 44%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.18 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fulham's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fulham had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fulham and 1.00 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?

Fulham 2-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fulham win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fulham 41%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fulham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fulham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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