Pergolettese 1-2 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
29%
2.77
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.44
Over 2.5
42%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
6.11
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
33%
-3.6pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
66%
-7.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
34%
+7.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +5%
1.26/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.19
+9% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pergolettese
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Novara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
05.10.2024 Novara Novara 3-1 HT 2-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
24.03.2024 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-1 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
19.11.2023 Novara Novara 2-1 HT 0-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
02.04.2023 Novara Novara 1-2 HT 1-2 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
30.11.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
03.04.2021 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pergolettese
1-2
AWAY Novara
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pergolettese vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara edged past Pergolettese 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Novara made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pergolettese had 44% of the ball to Novara's 56%, shots finished 7-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pergolettese and 1.17 for Novara.

What was the final score of Pergolettese vs Novara?

Pergolettese 1-2 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pergolettese vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pergolettese win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pergolettese 40%, draw 29%, Novara 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pergolettese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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