Basel 1-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 15 Feb 2026

Basel
1 - 1 HT 1 - 0
Lugano
📅15/02/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Basel vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.18
Over
58%
1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
20%
4.15
2-3
45%
1.85
4-5
27%
2.92
6+
8%
8.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.28
1/2
2%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
15%
5.58
X/2
12%
6.35
X/X
15%
5.31
2/1 ✗
3%
23.8
2/2
19%
4.0
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.8 — our 3% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Basel v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Basel The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano The Market 37%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.55 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.52
1.42 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.47
Average Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Strong
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
24 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3

Basel vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.19 xG 2.01
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
297 Passes 381
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.11.2025 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.08.2025 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 2-0 Basel Basel İSV
10.05.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-5 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
06.04.2025 Basel Basel 2-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
19.01.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
27.07.2024 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV

Basel 1-1 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
1 - 1
AWAY Lugano
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
REVIEW Basel vs Lugano
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Basel and Lugano traded blows to a 1-1 standstill. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

Under the surface, possession split 50% to 50% in Basel's favour, shots finished 8-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Basel against 1.67 for Lugano.

Basel vs Lugano Result & Final Score

Basel 1 - 1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Basel vs Lugano Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Basel 40%, draw 27%, Lugano 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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