Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 15 Feb 2026

📅15/02/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.43
Over
60%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
1.55
No
39%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.01
2-3
39%
1.95
4-5
24%
2.66
6+
17%
6.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
13%
4.54
X/2
7%
10.1
X/X
10%
6.29
2/1
9%
19.8
2/2
8%
7.1
2/X
5%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+0.7pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.1pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.80/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.90
-8% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.6 Crosses 12.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
1W-3D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.76 xG 1.19
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2025 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-1 HT 2-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
16.02.2025 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
06.10.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 1-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
03.03.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
13.01.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-2 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.01.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
4-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.79 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
308 Passes 419
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen got the better of PEC Zwolle 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heerenveen as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Heerenveen had 44% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.79 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heerenveen and 1.17 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?

Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 57%, draw 22%, PEC Zwolle 21%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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