Pachuca 3-1 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Feb 2026

📅15/02/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.75
Over
47%
1.93
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.84
2-3
37%
1.74
4-5
22%
3.79
6+
10%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.84 — our 31% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Pachuca The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas The Market 24%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Strong Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Great
1.76 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 0.88
0.87 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.49
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Average Defensevs comparable teams Average
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
19.5 Crosses 14.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atlas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
299 Passes 327
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2025 Atlas Atlas 0-3 HT 0-3 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
02.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
14.09.2024 Atlas Atlas 2-0 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
01.02.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 4-3 HT 3-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
02.11.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-2 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
16.04.2023 Atlas Atlas 4-1 HT 3-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
3-1
AWAY Atlas
0.83 xG 1.43
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 5
243 Passes 459
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
6 Box Touches 18
4 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Pachuca vs Atlas
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Pachuca saw off Atlas 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-no price stood at 1.82, roughly 55%.

By the numbers, Pachuca had 37% of the ball to Atlas's 63%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.83 to 1.43 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atlas.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Atlas.

Pachuca vs Atlas Result & Final Score

Pachuca 3-1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Pachuca vs Atlas Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 51%, draw 27%, Atlas 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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