Den Bosch 1-4 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 15 Mar 2024

Den Bosch
1-4 HT 1-2
Willem II
📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Den Bosch vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
56%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.95
Over 2.5
42%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.81
No
58%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
3.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.4
6+ Goals
8%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 37% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
7.75
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
8%
9.95
X/2
17%
3.88
X/X
8%
5.29
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
32%
2.11
2/X
10%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
19%
-0.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
55%
Away Win
57%
-1.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.9pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Den Bosch v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 61%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -28%
1.01/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.03
-5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
17.4 Crosses 25.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

Den Bosch vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Willem II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.97 xG 1.14
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
331 Passes 394
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.10.2023 Willem II Willem II 3-1 HT 1-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
02.04.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-2 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
07.10.2022 Willem II Willem II 1-2 HT 0-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
02.02.2014 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-1 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
04.08.2013 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 1-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
20.05.2012 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2

Den Bosch 1-4 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
1-4
AWAY Willem II
0.42 xG 0.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
346 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II ran out comfortable winners over Den Bosch 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Den Bosch had 51% of the ball to Willem II's 49%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.42 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Den Bosch and 1.83 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs Willem II?

Den Bosch 1-4 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 19%, draw 25%, Willem II 55%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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