Utrecht II 2-3 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 15 Mar 2024

Utrecht II
2-3 HT 1-0
Emmen
📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Utrecht II vs Emmen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
8%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 29% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.92
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
4%
12.9
X/1
10%
7.1
X/2
17%
4.81
X/X
14%
4.78
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
15%
2.84
2/X
11%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
38%
Away Win
44%
-6.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Utrecht II v Emmen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
1.14/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.17
-30% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
13.5 Crosses 17.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2

Utrecht II vs Emmen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Emmen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.83 xG 1.61
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
268 Passes 434
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.09.2023 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
11.03.2022 Emmen Emmen 2-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
01.10.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
28.04.2018 Emmen Emmen 0-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
04.12.2017 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-2 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
05.05.2017 Emmen Emmen 0-3 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2

Utrecht II 2-3 Emmen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
2-3
AWAY Emmen
0.59 xG 1.41
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 8
158 Passes 322
53% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 36
6 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emmen edged past Utrecht II 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Emmen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Utrecht II had 38% of the ball to Emmen's 62%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.59 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Utrecht II and 1.17 for Emmen.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs Emmen?

Utrecht II 2-3 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 33%, draw 29%, Emmen 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emmen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Emmen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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