FC Oss 1-0 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.83
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 29% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.19
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
10%
6.32
X/2
17%
5.2
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
16%
3.17
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
44%
Away Win
40%
+3.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Oss EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.22/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.39
-1% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.3 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Oss
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 0.85
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
314 Passes 427
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
31.03.2023 FC Oss FC Oss 2-2 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
30.09.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
21.01.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
12.11.2021 FC Oss FC Oss 0-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
07.05.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Oss FC Oss HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Oss
1-0
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.58 xG 0.51
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
229 Passes 354
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Oss vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Oss edged past Helmond Sport 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Helmond Sport at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Oss had 41% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 59%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.58 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Oss's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Oss had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Oss and 1.00 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of FC Oss vs Helmond Sport?

FC Oss 1-0 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Oss vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated an Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Oss 31%, draw 25%, Helmond Sport 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Helmond Sport), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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