NAC Breda 1-0 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.66
No
56%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.15
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 28% vs market 20.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.31
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
18%
4.24
X/2
6%
8.75
X/X
11%
5.31
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
11%
6.33
2/X
5%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-12.0pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.41/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.63
+5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.7 Crosses 16.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-2D-2L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
446 Passes 280
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-1 HT 3-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
31.03.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-3 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
30.09.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
08.04.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
26.10.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOK
08.08.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-0
AWAY VVV-Venlo
1.20 xG 0.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
451 Passes 307
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda nicked a narrow win over VVV-Venlo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 58% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 42%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.20 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for NAC Breda and 1.67 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs VVV-Venlo?

NAC Breda 1-0 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 52%, draw 25%, VVV-Venlo 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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