Luzern 1-2 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 15 Mar 2026

Luzern
1-2 HT 1-2
Winterthur
📅15/03/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Luzern vs Winterthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
13%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
3.17
Over 2.5
68%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.53
No
39%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
7.58
2-3 Goals
35%
2.27
4-5 Goals
32%
2.33
6+ Goals
17%
4.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.53
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
17.7
X/1
24%
4.19
X/2
4%
15.95
X/X
9%
9.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
16.9
2/2
5%
11.35
2/X
6%
20.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 16.9 — our 11% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
70%
-3.5pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.6pp
14%
Away Win
13%
+0.9pp
32%
Under 2.5
28%
+3.8pp
68%
Over 2.5
72%
-3.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.2pp
39%
BTTS No
39%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luzern v Winterthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 16%
-13% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.93/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.25
-23% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
34.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
26.6 Crosses 12.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Luzern vs Winterthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Winterthur
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.34 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
363 Passes 314
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
29.11.2025 Luzern Luzern 1-3 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
25.10.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 2-2 HT 2-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.02.2025 Luzern Luzern 3-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
14.12.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 3-4 HT 3-2 Luzern Luzern İSV
24.08.2024 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
11.02.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV

Luzern 1-2 Winterthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-2
AWAY Winterthur
2.72 xG 1.34
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
487 Passes 182
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
44 Box Touches 24
34 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur nicked a narrow win over Luzern 2-1 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Luzern carried 67% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Luzern had 69% of the ball to Winterthur's 31%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.72 to 1.34 — on chances, Luzern could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Luzern and 2.00 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Winterthur?

Luzern 1-2 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Luzern 67%, draw 20%, Winterthur 14%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
15 Mar 2026
16:00 Lausanne Sports vs Young Boys Analysis →
18:30 Basel vs Servette Analysis →