Lazio vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Lazio v Milan — Team-Based Signals
Lazio vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Lazio 1-0 Milan — Actual Match Statistics
Lazio squeezed past Milan 1-0.
A gentle 53% lean on Milan didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both.
On the day, Milan saw more of the ball, 59% to 41%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.59 to 1.40 — on chances, Milan could feel hard done by.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Lazio against 1.17 for Milan.
Lazio vs Milan Result & Final Score
Lazio 1 - 0 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Lazio vs Milan Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lazio 20%, draw 27%, Milan 53%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Milan), BTTS Yes went the other way.