FC Dallas 3-3 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.07
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
11%
5.2
X/2
13%
6.35
X/X
12%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.1
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.40/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/2.11
+6% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
14.2 Crosses 11.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Dallas
0W-0D-2L
AWAY San Diego
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.31 xG 2.26
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
318 Passes 558
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
30 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
29.06.2025 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-3 HT 1-1 San Diego ABD
04.05.2025 San Diego 5-0 HT 2-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Dallas
3-3
AWAY San Diego
2.71 xG 1.97
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 0
308 Passes 651
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
30 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Dallas vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Dallas and San Diego couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FC Dallas at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Dallas had 35% of the ball to San Diego's 65%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 2.71 to 1.97.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, San Diego led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Dallas and 4.00 for San Diego.

What was the final score of FC Dallas vs San Diego?

FC Dallas 3-3 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Dallas vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Dallas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Dallas 43%, draw 26%, San Diego 32%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Dallas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Dallas) ✓ BTTS Yes
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