Chicago Fire vs DC United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chicago Fire v DC United — Team-Based Signals
Chicago Fire vs DC United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 3-0
Chicago Fire
ABD
0-0
HT 0-0
DC United
ABD
Chicago Fire 1-2 DC United — Actual Match Statistics
DC United edged past Chicago Fire 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Chicago Fire at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Chicago Fire had 67% of the ball to DC United's 33%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.93 to 1.61.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, DC United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.67 for DC United.
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs DC United?
Chicago Fire 1-2 DC United in the USA - Major League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs DC United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 54%, draw 22%, DC United 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.