Orlando City 2-1 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.5
No
38%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
7.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
32.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
19%
4.83
X/2
12%
8.11
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1
6%
20.65
2/2
11%
5.45
2/X
5%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 32.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-1.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
62%
-0.8pp
38%
BTTS No
38%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.64/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.54
-2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.7 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
2W-4D-0L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.60 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
423 Passes 398
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.07.2025 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
20.04.2025 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
27.07.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 4-1 HT 3-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal CONLK
21.04.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
25.02.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
01.10.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 3-0 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
2-1
AWAY CF Montreal
2.57 xG 1.56
35% Ball Possession 65%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
243 Passes 492
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 36
7 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City nicked a narrow win over CF Montreal 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Orlando City had 35% of the ball to CF Montreal's 65%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 2.57 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Orlando City and 0.67 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs CF Montreal?

Orlando City 2-1 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 47%, draw 22%, CF Montreal 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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