Emelec 2-1 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 30%
-18% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.30/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.33
-20% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
22.4 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Orense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.74 xG 0.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 263
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2025 Orense Orense 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
01.06.2025 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
02.09.2024 Emelec Emelec 2-1 HT 0-1 Orense Orense EKV1
26.03.2024 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
13.08.2023 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
06.03.2023 Orense Orense 2-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
2-1
AWAY Orense
1.05 xG 0.30
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
327 Passes 201
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec edged past Orense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Emelec as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Emelec had 61% of the ball to Orense's 39%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.05 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Emelec and 0.67 for Orense.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Orense?

Emelec 2-1 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Emelec 45%, draw 28%, Orense 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emelec) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Emelec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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