Güney Sudan 1-2 Uganda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.71
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
59%
1.48
Over
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No Pick
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.2
2-3
42%
1.8
4-5
15%
5.66
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+5.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-5.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.3pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Güney Sudan EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Uganda EU Bookmakers 58%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.35/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/0.05
-100% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +132%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
281 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
8.0 Crosses 11.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Güney Sudan
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Uganda
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.29 xG 0.77
34% Ball Possession 66%
4 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
148 Passes 403
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.10.2024 Uganda Uganda 1-0 HT 0-0 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan AFUK
16.11.2020 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan 1-0 HT 1-0 Uganda Uganda AFUK
12.11.2020 Uganda Uganda 1-0 HT 0-0 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Güney Sudan
1-2
AWAY Uganda
0.26 xG 2.04
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
169 Passes 412
61% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 23
6 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Güney Sudan vs Uganda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uganda nicked a narrow win over Güney Sudan 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Uganda as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Güney Sudan had 36% of the ball to Uganda's 64%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.26 to 2.04 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Uganda's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Uganda led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Güney Sudan and 0.67 for Uganda.

What was the final score of Güney Sudan vs Uganda?

Güney Sudan 1-2 Uganda in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Güney Sudan vs Uganda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uganda win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Güney Sudan 24%, draw 27%, Uganda 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uganda) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uganda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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