Lesotho 0-2 Gabon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.09
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
46%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.59
Over 2.5
35%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.27
No
65%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
4.84
6+ Goals
7%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 38% vs market 34.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
17%
+9.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
46%
Away Win
57%
-11.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.4pp
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
-5.3pp
65%
BTTS No
60%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lesotho EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Gabon EU Bookmakers 61%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-90% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 81%
7.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.4 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lesotho
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Gabon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.69 xG 1.03
28% Ball Possession 72%
9 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
149 Passes 478
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
6 Box Touches 41
8 Crosses 29
7 Yellow Cards 0
11.10.2024 Gabon Gabon 0-0 HT 0-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
19.11.2014 Gabon Gabon 4-2 HT 1-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
10.09.2014 Lesotho Lesotho 1-1 HT 0-0 Gabon Gabon AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lesotho
0-2
AWAY Gabon
0.36 xG 1.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
327 Passes 370
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
8 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lesotho vs Gabon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gabon got the better of Lesotho 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gabon as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lesotho had 48% of the ball to Gabon's 52%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.36 to 1.98.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gabon led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lesotho and 1.67 for Gabon.

What was the final score of Lesotho vs Gabon?

Lesotho 0-2 Gabon in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lesotho vs Gabon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gabon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lesotho 26%, draw 28%, Gabon 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gabon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gabon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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