Lesotho vs Senegal Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lesotho v Senegal — Team-Based Signals
Lesotho vs Senegal Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Senegal
Afrika Uluslar Kupası
Lesotho 0-1 Senegal — Actual Match Statistics
Senegal edged past Lesotho 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Senegal as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.
On the day, Lesotho had 25% of the ball to Senegal's 75%, shots finished 8-27, expected goals 0.57 to 1.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Senegal's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Senegal led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Lesotho and 2.00 for Senegal.
What was the final score of Lesotho vs Senegal?
Lesotho 0-1 Senegal in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lesotho vs Senegal?
Before kick-off our model rated an Senegal win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lesotho 18%, draw 28%, Senegal 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Senegal), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.