Libya 0-3 Nijerya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.09
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
56%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under
61%
1.67
Over
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No Pick
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.67
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.4
6+
10%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
17%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
56%
Away Win
59%
-2.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.9pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libya EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Nijerya EU Bookmakers 62%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.39/2.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.60
+22% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +143%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
273 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 83%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
14.0 Crosses 20.6
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libya
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Nijerya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.03 xG 1.37
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
208 Passes 406
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
2 Box Touches 42
5 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 0
11.10.2024 Nijerya Nijerya 1-0 HT 0-0 Libya Libya AFUK
16.10.2018 Libya Libya 2-3 HT 1-2 Nijerya Nijerya AFUK
13.10.2018 Nijerya Nijerya 4-0 HT 1-0 Libya Libya AFUK
POST-MATCH Libya vs Nijerya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nijerya swept aside Libya 3-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nijerya as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nijerya led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libya and 2.67 for Nijerya.

What was the final score of Libya vs Nijerya?

Libya 0-3 Nijerya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libya vs Nijerya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nijerya win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Libya 18%, draw 26%, Nijerya 56%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nijerya), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nijerya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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