Ayr United 1-1 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 15 Nov 2025

📅15/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.98
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
12%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 32% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.12
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
13%
4.05
X/2
6%
10.35
X/X
11%
5.07
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
12%
8.81
2/X
7%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.91/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.60
+14% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.5
5.0 Crosses 13.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arbroath
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Corners 3
01.08.2025 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
19.07.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 4-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKLK
23.01.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 2-0 HT 0-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
13.01.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
02.09.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 2-1 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
31.03.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 2-0 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United and Arbroath couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ayr United at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ayr United and 0.83 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Arbroath?

Ayr United 1-1 Arbroath in the Scotland - Championship on 15/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 54%, draw 23%, Arbroath 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ayr United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKCL More Scotland - Championship
15 Nov 2025
18:00 Ross County vs Greenock Morton Analysis →
18:00 Raith Rovers vs Airdrieonians Analysis →
18:00 St. Johnstone vs Queens Park Analysis →