Pineto 1-0 Athletic Carpi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Nov 2025

📅15/11/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
34%
Draw
30%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.8pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pineto EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.18/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.74
-11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +69%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pineto
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Athletic Carpi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.03.2025 Athletic Carpi Athletic Carpi 1-1 HT 1-1 Pineto Pineto İTC
03.11.2024 Pineto Pineto 1-4 HT 0-2 Athletic Carpi Athletic Carpi İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pineto
1-0
AWAY Athletic Carpi
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pineto vs Athletic Carpi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pineto squeezed past Athletic Carpi 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pineto as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pineto had 47% of the ball to Athletic Carpi's 53%, shots finished 7-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Athletic Carpi led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pineto and 2.50 for Athletic Carpi.

What was the final score of Pineto vs Athletic Carpi?

Pineto 1-0 Athletic Carpi in the Italy - Serie C on 15/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pineto vs Athletic Carpi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pineto win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pineto 42%, draw 34%, Athletic Carpi 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pineto), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pineto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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